A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
